Can ChatGPT create a better event security plan than the US Secret Service?

With three prompts, ChatGPT analyzed Butler Farm, found the vulnerabilities that hundreds of trained federal agents missed, and mapped the ideal location for counter sniper teams.

Humans make bad decisions and inaccurately assess situations for a wide array of reasons. Any of these common mistakes could explain how the US Secret Service missed the most obvious vulnerability of a rooftop with a direct line of sight to the stage at a Trump rally.

While it’s likely that some of the agents and local police officers noticed that there were problems, the egregious mistakes made by the Secret Service supervisors on July 13 were likely a mix of:

• Cognitive Biases:

  • Confirmation Bias: People tend to favor information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, ignoring contradictory evidence.

  • Anchoring Bias: Relying too heavily on the first piece of information encountered (the "anchor") when making decisions.

  • Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the importance of information that is readily available or recent, rather than all relevant information.

  • Overconfidence: Having an inflated belief in one's own abilities or judgment, leading to risky or ill-informed decisions.

• Social Pressures:

  • Conformity: Going along with the group’s decisions, even if one’s own judgment differs, due to the desire to fit in or avoid conflict.

  • Authority Bias: Giving undue weight to the opinions or directives of authority figures, even if those opinions are flawed.

  • Rushed Decisions: When under time constraints, people may not take the time to fully evaluate their options, leading to hasty and potentially poor decisions.

  • Resistance to Change: Preferring to maintain the current state of affairs (status quo) rather than making a change, even if the change could be beneficial.

• Complexity and Overload:

  • Information Overload: When faced with too much information, people can become overwhelmed and may not process it effectively, leading to poor choices.

  • Decision Fatigue: After making many decisions, the quality of decisions can deteriorate as mental resources are depleted.

A way to overcome these flaws in human decision making is to use an emotionless tool that relies on mathematics and data analysis. A tool that does exactly this is ChatGPT so I gave it a picture of Butler Farm with this simple prompt:

I'm planning a political rally at this location. Where should security be setup? What are the biggest risks? What are the areas of vulnerability?

ChatGPT responded with this:

For a political rally at the Butler Farm Show Grounds, security setup and risk assessment are crucial. Here’s a detailed plan based on the provided image:

1. Perimeter Security:

   • Entrances and Exits: Set up checkpoints with metal detectors and bag searches at all entry and exit points, especially at Evans City Road, Whitestown Road, and Meridian Road. Control access to prevent unauthorized entry.

   • Fencing: Ensure the entire perimeter is secure with temporary fencing and barriers to control the crowd flow.

2. Stage and VIP Area:

   • Stage Security: Deploy security personnel around the stage and VIP areas. Ensure the stage is elevated and has barriers to prevent unauthorized access.

   • Close Protection: Assign a close protection team for high-profile individuals on the stage.

3. Crowd Control:

   • Bleachers: Position security personnel around the bleachers to manage the crowd and respond to any disturbances.

   • Roving Patrols: Have roving patrols throughout the venue to monitor crowd behavior and quickly respond to any incidents.

4. Emergency Response:

   • Medical Stations: Set up first aid and medical response stations near the stage and bleachers.

   • Evacuation Routes: Clearly mark and communicate evacuation routes. Ensure security personnel are briefed on evacuation procedures.

Analysis of ChatGPT vs. Secret Service

ChatGPT recognized that the secure area should extend to Whitestown Road which would include the rooftop that the 20-year-old sniper was able to easily access. For some reason the Secret Service missed this.

Unlike the Secret Service, GPT also recognizes the need to have evacuation routes from the venue. In this video, police and agents can’t get to the location of the shooter because of a fence. After 2 minutes a police car rams the fence so that officers can go through the hole to get to the location of the shooter. Having gates and exits work much better than making holes with a police car because one of the agents in tactical gear get stuck in fence blocking the opening for other officers. Luckily some civilians are standing nearby (in an area that should have been secured) and able to free him.

ChatGPT also suggests having medical stations near the stage and bleachers. Even without a shooting, it was a very hot day with many elderly people in attendance. When 3 people in the crowd were shot, it appears there was a delay in getting emergency medical care to the victims because all of the attention was focused on Trump and the shooter.

Just from the first prompt, ChatGPT also analyzed the areas of areas of vulnerability:

1. Entry and Exit Points:

   • These are the most critical areas for security screening and control. Any breach here can compromise the entire event.

2. Stage and VIP Area:

   • This area is a high-value target for disruptions or attacks. Ensure robust security measures are in place.

3. Crowd Dense Areas:

   • Areas around the stage and bleachers where the crowd is dense are vulnerable to disruptions and need constant monitoring.

4. Parking and Surrounding Areas:

   • Ensure the parking areas are well-lit and patrolled. Monitor the surrounding areas for any suspicious activities.

More Analysis of ChatGPT vs. Secret Service

From the timeline of events, we know the shooter tried to get into the rally, was approached by police but disappeared into a dense crowd, and then decided to fire the shots from the surrounding area. ChatGPT identified all three of these key areas of vulnerability.

I wanted to get specific details so I added a second prompt:

Where should the counter sniper teams be setup?

Counter-sniper teams should be strategically positioned to have a clear and unobstructed view of key areas while remaining concealed and protected. Here are the recommended locations for setting up counter-sniper teams at the Butler Farm Show Grounds:

1. High Ground and Elevated Structures:

   • Near the Stage: Place teams on any elevated structures or buildings near the stage to monitor and protect the VIP area.

   • Northwest Corner: Utilize any buildings or structures on the northwest corner near Whitestown Road for an elevated vantage point.

   • East Side: If there are any suitable structures near Meridian Road, these can provide a good vantage point for monitoring the entire grounds.

2. Perimeter Coverage:

   • North Perimeter: Position a team along Whitestown Road to cover potential long-range threats approaching from the north.

   • West Perimeter: Place a team near Evans City Road to cover the western perimeter and oversee one of the main entry points.

3. Concealed and Protected Locations:

   • Within Trees or Elevated Vegetation: If there are trees or other elevated natural features within or around the perimeter, these can be utilized for concealed positions.

   • Temporary Elevated Platforms: Erect temporary elevated platforms or scaffolding concealed within existing structures or vegetation to provide additional vantage points.

Specific Position Suggestions:

1. Northwest Corner (Whitestown Road):

   • Utilize any buildings or elevated points here to cover the entrance and oversee the main grounds.

2. Southwest Corner (Evans City Road):

   • Any elevated structures or temporary platforms here can provide coverage for the entrance and the stage area.

3. Southeast Corner (Meridian Road):

   • Set up positions here to monitor the eastern perimeter and provide a clear line of sight to the stage and bleachers.

Coverage Areas:

• Ensure that the teams have overlapping fields of view to cover blind spots and provide comprehensive surveillance.

• The focus should be on the stage, bleachers, and main entry points as these are the most vulnerable and likely targets for any long-range threats.

ChatGPT provided this map of the venue with red dots for the recommended locations of the counter sniper teams. The pink Xs are where the Secret Service actually setup behind the stage.

Unlike the failed Secret Service plan, GPT suggests putting the counter snipers on an elevated platform in front of the stage so that they had a clear view of the surrounding buildings. From the location the Secret Service selected, a tree blocked the line of sight from one of the counter sniper teams.

Finally, I gave ChatGPT one more prompt:

What are the three most important security planning factors at this venue to protect a VIP at a podium on an elevated stage?

Protecting a VIP at a podium on an elevated stage involves several critical security planning factors. Here are the three most important:

1. Access Control and Screening:

• Perimeter Security: Establish a secure perimeter around the venue with checkpoints at all entry and exit points. Use barriers, fencing, and security personnel to control access.

• Credentialing: Issue and strictly enforce the use of credentials for staff, media, and attendees to ensure that only authorized individuals have access to specific areas.

2. Close Protection and Surveillance:

• Close Protection Detail: Assign a dedicated close protection team to the VIP. This team should include highly trained security personnel skilled in protective tactics, quick evacuation, and immediate threat response.

• Roving Patrols and Sniper Teams: Deploy roving patrols within the crowd to detect and address potential threats early. Position counter-sniper teams at strategic elevated points to monitor and neutralize any long-range threats.

3. Emergency Response and Evacuation Planning:

• Emergency Protocols: Develop and rehearse detailed emergency response protocols for various scenarios, including medical emergencies, fire, and active threats. Ensure all security personnel are familiar with these protocols.

• Evacuation Routes: Clearly mark and communicate evacuation routes to all attendees and staff. Designate specific routes for the VIP and ensure they are kept clear and secure at all times.

• Medical and First Aid: Position medical and first aid stations at key locations around the venue. Ensure there is a plan for rapid medical response and transport in case of an emergency.

Summary and my thoughts

If ChatGPT was asked to create the security plan and threat assessment for Trump’s rally at Butler Farm in Pennsylvania on July 13, unlike the failures by the human Secret Service agents, the most obvious vulnerabilities would have been accounted for and there would be an evacuation plan that didn’t require crashing a police car into a fence.

This exercise highlights how every security professional should be using the best tools available to help with their job. Going back to the reasons people make bad decisions at the start, the Secret Service probably ignores tools like ChatGPT because of overconfidence, conformity bias, authority bias, and resistance to change. Lives depend on public safety agencies making good decisions and generative AI technology can help make those decisions.

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David Riedman is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database. Listen to my weekly podcast—Back to School Shootings—and checkout my interview on Freakonomics Radio and my article on CNN about AI and school security.