Systemic failures before the Trump assassination attempt are the same as school shootings

Missing warning signs, breakdowns in communication, flawed incident command system, and not imagining multiple threat scenarios is combined with the "it will never happen here" mentality.

“July 13 will be my premiere, watch as it unfolds.” That’s allegedly what the 20-year-old from Butler, PA posted to a gaming forum (note: this was briefed to senators by the FBI on Wednesday and other law enforcement sources are now questioning the validity of the account) before he attempted to assassinate a presidential candidate.

Computer records show he searched for “major depressive disorder”, researched the Oxford, MI school shooter, looked up how to make explosives, and had a drone in his vehicle. While there is not a definitive profile of a mass shooter, the most common situation is a young man who is depressed and actively suicidal before the attack (just like the school shooter’s manifesto that I reviewed last month). Many school shootings and mass shootings are planned as both a bombing and shooting. Weaponized drones are a future threat that schools need to be preparing for right now.

As I’ve studied school shootings for the last six years, I’ve discovered that each attack is the final link in a long chain of failures (listen to my Freakonomics Radio episode about failure).

We were 1/4 inch away from a moment that would define our lives as Americans when a catastrophic series of failures by the Secret Service and local law enforcement allowed a 20-year-old to take a shot at former President Trump as he stood on a stage. If the leading candidate for President was killed months before the election, this day would change the course of American history.

The Economist

After every school shooting and now in the aftermath of the Trump rally, people say “how could this happen?”.

Even when there are obvious warning signs in the minutes, hours, days, and even months before an attack, police fail to avert school shootings and this assassination attempt for the same reasons:

1. Ignoring dangerous marketing and capabilities of firearms designed to kill people (not animals)

2. Failing to realize the term ‘active shooter’ combines and confuses multiple distinct types of attacks

3. Regular people see warning signs, but police fail to take action or connect the dots

4. Lack of communication between multiple law enforcement agencies

5. Obvious vulnerabilities are missed during threat assessments

6. Overreliance of security screenings at the gate or front door

7. This will never happen here mentality

What happened in Butler, PA?

Here is a timeline for July 13 that I put together based on multiple media reports:

• [Exact time unknown in the morning]: Shooter visits rally site for 90 minutes

• 5:00 pm: Shooter attempts to enter the secure area at the rally

• 5:06 pm: Shooter is spotted pacing along the edge of the secure area, he is approached by police, but he disappears into the crowd before officers reach him

• 5:10 pm: Shooter is identified by Secret Service as a person of interest

• 5:30 pm: Shooter is spotted with a rangefinder measuring distances to the stage

• 5:52 pm: Shooter is spotted on the roof by Secret Service agents

• 6:02 pm: Trump takes the stage

• 6:09 pm: Secret Service snipers reposition to try to get a better view of the rooftop

• 6:11 pm: Butler Township Police discover the gunman is on the roof, and one local officer hoists another to get up to the ledge. Shooter points his rifle at the officer and the officer lets go of the ledge to “take cover”, saving his own life instead of the former President or rally attendees.

• 6:12 pm: Shooter fires first shots

• 6:12 pm (11 seconds after first shot): Secret Service sniper locate Shooter on the rooftop

• 6:12 pm (26 seconds after first shot): Shooter is killed by Secret Service snipers

During the 72 minutes from the Shooter arriving at the rally to him firing shots, multiple attendees also spotted him on the roof and try to communicate this obvious security threat to police. Viral videos on social media document these warnings.

Ignoring dangerous marketing and capabilities of firearms designed to kill people (not animals)

“When all else fails, vote from the rooftops”. This is the slogan on a t-shirt that you can buy on Amazon Prime for $16.99.

It’s not just amazon, thousands of shirts, posters, and stickers with similar phrases and images of sniper rifles are available from dozens of vendors.

This advertising isn’t limited to clothing, the same company that manufactured the AR-15 used by the Uvalde school shooter advertises a sniper rifle with a photo showing a bullseye traced on a city street. There is no self-defense or civilian use for a rifle with 1000-yard range and a night vision scope in an urban setting. This ad doesn’t show a hunter in the woods wearing camo or deer in the sights, these companies are marketing weapons specifically to kill people. It’s also illegal to hunt a night time in most parts of the country making the sale of night vision scopes to civilians highly questionable.

If you wonder how someone could carry a rifle anywhere near a political event, the company that manufactured the AR-15 used to shoot at Trump markets a guitar case to hide the rifle inside.

The same company also shows their AR-15 rifle being fired from a rooftop.

These advertisements are not appeals to hunters, outdoorsmen, and recreational sport shooters, they are blatantly marketing to an urban sniper is who to going to kill a human from a long distance away.

Failing to realize the term ‘active shooter’ combines and confuses multiple distinct types of attacks

If a rally venue, office building, stadium, or school has an ‘active shooter plan’, what does this even mean?

If you asked ten police chiefs and ten schools principals to define “active shooter”, you would get an array of different answers. This is because the concept of an “active shooter” encompasses various attack types that are distinct from each other.

Instead of one active shooter plan, there need to be completely different plans and threat assessments for:

• Surprise Attack by an Insider

• Frontal Assault

• Sniper Attack (indiscriminate)

• Assassination or Ambush

• Hostage-Taking

• Barricade

• Complex Coordinated Attack

Each of these attack types have taken place at schools and they all need a different plan. Students need to get away from the school if there is an insider who knows the facility, while sheltering inside might be the safest option when there is a sniper firing from a distance.

Read more about how "Active Shooter" combines and confuses multiple distinct types of attacks. Using the same terminology for diverse circumstances can lead to a failure in planning, training, and response procedures, as the tactics required for each situation may be completely different.

Regular people see warning signs, but police fail to take action or connect the dots

Attendees at the rally knew there was a problem when there was a person on the roof with a clear line of sight to the stage. Local officers knew there was a possible threat an hour before when they saw the Shooter try to enter and then loiter around the perimeter of the venue. Spotting warning signs and not acting on them is likely a breakdown in communication between multiple law enforcement agencies.

This is the same problem that happened when a sniper opened fire in Las Vegas. “Shooter is halfway up, halfway up in the Mandalay Bay Hotel” was the radio transmission from a Las Vegas patrol officer seconds after the shooting started at the Route 91 Harvest Festival.

At the street level, there was nothing this officer could do to stop an elevated shooter in a high-rise hotel room other than share critical information over the radio. Sadly — but predictably — this important information went unnoticed as other officers frantically called in wounded victims and erroneous information about the location of the shooter (and even reported multiple shooters during the initial confusion).

In Vegas, More than 6 minutes and 40 seconds passed before police supervisors identified the location of the shooter and directed officers to the 32nd floor of the hotel. We will never know how many killed or wounded victims could have been spared if the first officer’s message was not lost in the noise. At the Trump rally, 20 minutes passed between agents spotting the shooter on the roof and snipers killing him.