How many school shootings during 2024-25 school year?

Shootings on campus, trends, 'active shooter' incidents, near misses, and averted plots.

Looking at the number of shootings on campus per school year (August-June), as kids head to summer break, there was a 22.5% decrease compared to last year. While this is progress, the total is still more than double the number of shootings pre-pandemic.

The reduction in school shootings is part of a larger nationwide trend in violent crime. Per Jeff Asher's Real Time Crime Index, nationwide crime data shows a double-digit percentage point drop in every category of crime through March 2025 including a 20+ percent decline in murder.

"The murder rate is declining in 26 of the country’s 30 most murderous cities so far in 2025. Detroit, New Orleans, Los Angeles, Philadelphia, and Baltimore each reported fewer murders through May than any year since the 1960s, and New York City reported the fewest murders ever reported through May 2025." (Jeff-alytics Newsletter)

Locations of shootings on campus (2024-25)

When I sorted the zip codes for the shootings on campus this school year, about 10% are in cities (following the same patterns in nationwide crime data). Even though roughly twice as many students attend urban schools compared to rural schools, the rate of shootings at rural schools is 2x higher (with half as many students).

• Urban: 28

• Suburban: 151

• Rural: 61

Gun violence rates are not equally distributed across the country. Gun violence is far more common in Southern and Midwest states which are the areas with the highest homicide rate (~78% of homicides involve a firearm). These higher homicide rate states tend to allow people to carry guns in public without permits while also lacking laws regulating firearm sales, safety training, or secure storage of guns. Just like shootings on school campuses, most shooting in public places like grocery stores and shopping malls are disputes that escalate into a shooting because someone involved was carrying a concealed handgun (learn more: Ep 38. Dr. Jens Ludwig explains his new book 'Unforgiving Places').

2025 Homicides per 100,000

You can learn more about the real time crime index from my podcast episode with Jeff: Ep 37. Realtime database shows violent crime is falling nationwide

Details of 2024-25 School Year

More about campus types: There are 9 types of school campuses. Each needs a different security strategy.

Planned Attacks

In the K-12 School Shooting Database, I code each incident with three different yes/no categories related to planned school shootings (active shooter y/n, preplanned y/n, and near miss y/n).

Active shooter: When the shooter intends to kill and/or wound victims, either targeted or random, within the school campus during a continuous episode of violence. This definition/criteria for an “active shooter” blends the FBI’s definition with the homicide literature’s differentiation between a rampage killing versus a traditional homicide.

Pre-planned attack: Perpetrator created maps, drawings, hitlists, written plans, manifesto, attempted to recruit others, or walkthrough/surveillance of the school showing deliberate planning.

Near miss: Shootings at schools that had the potential to be much worse. A near miss can be an incident without injuries or deaths. It can also be a shooting with victims killed or injured that had the potential to be much worse (adapted from mandatory aviation reporting).

Active shooter incidents during 2024-2025 school year:

1. September 04, 2024 – Winder, GA – Apalachee High School
   Planned attack by current student with AR-15 rifle

2. October 07, 2024 – Mesquite, TX – Poteet High School
   Man with rifle in school parking lot fired shots at two police officers then barricaded inside nearby house for 4 hours

3. October 24, 2024 – Phillipsburg, KS – Phillipsburg Middle School
   Man with pistol and AR-15 rifle fired shots into the air outside the school causing a lockdown