Data analysis of 'insider' school shootings like Apalachee High

The most common school shooting scenario since the 1960s is a surprise attack during morning classes committed by a current student who is allowed to be inside the school.

For the K-12 School Shooting Database, I record all types of shootings on campus. A subset of this data is deliberately planned school shootings where the perpetrator intends to harm many people. These are the high profile school shootings like Columbine, Sandy Hook, Parkland, and yesterday at Apalachee High in rural Winder, GA.

I code every shooting at a school for more than 300 variables and when a shooting like Apalachee High happens, it gets recorded as a preplanned attack with an attack type. Since 1966, there have been 230 deliberately preplanned attacks at schools. To analyze just these attacks, I can easily filter the data.

This article explains the different types of attacks that are all called ‘active shooters’ which creates confusion and misaligned response plans: "Active Shooter" combines and confuses multiple distinct types of attacks.

From looking at the filtered data, the attack at Apalachee high follows the same patterns as the others across the last six decades.

While billions of dollars are being invested to fortify schools, the most common school shooting scenario is a surprise attack by a current student (insider) who is allowed to be inside the building. When the attack is allowed to be inside the schools, these fortifications are defeated before the attack starts.

This is not a new problem. Insider attacks by current students are the most common school shooting scenario since the 1960s.

Just like Apalachee High, insider attacks by a current student are most likely to happen inside the school during morning classes.

Also like yesterday at Apalachee High, these insider attacks most frequently end with the student shooter being subdued by classmates or staff, or surrendering. Barricade situations and standoffs are rare.

At Parkland, the shooter put down his rifle and walked away from the school with other students. At Oxford High, the shooter put down his gun and surrendered to police officers in the hallway. At CVPA High in St. Louis in 2022, the shooter waited 2.5 minutes in a school hallway for police to find him.