Analyzing school shootings trends in 2023
From the first week of January to December, shootings happened almost every day at schools across the country, fights that escalated into shootings drove the increase.
The number of shootings at schools has dramatically increased over the last six years. In 2023, the total number of shootings has gone up by 12% compared to 2022.
There is a whole lot more to this story than just how many incidents happen each year. Without meaningful interventions that are addressing the changing circumstances of these attacks, the data shows that 2024 will be even worse.
Comparing 2022 and 2023
As the total number of incidents increased, the number of victims killed per incident was almost identical in 2022 and 2023. Last year, 21 teachers and students were killed at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, TX. In 2023, there was only one shooting—The Covenant School in Nashville, TN—with more than 2 victims killed. The biggest change in 2023 is a higher volume of shootings with just one victim. Stopping these more isolated and targeted attacks requires different methods of prevention than an indiscriminate ‘mass shooting’.
Even with the 12% increase in the total number of incidents, the monthly distribution across both years is almost the same.
Looking more closely at the time periods of the school day, in 2023 there are differences in when the shootings happened. More shootings this year took place during afternoon classes, dismissal, and evening events. This is significant because if a student fires shots during the afternoon or dismissal, they probably were carrying the gun with them for the entire school day.
Afternoon Classes: 38 incidents in 2022 compared to 48 in 2023.
Dismissal: An increase from 56 incidents in 2022 to 63 in 2023.
Evening: Nearly doubled from 13 incidents in 2022 to 24 in 2023.
Sports Game: A small increase from 59 in 2022 to 62 in 2023.
Where the shootings happened also changed in 2023. 280 of the incidents took place outside of the school building compared to 228 in 2022. There were 20 more shootings that happened directly in front of the school (e.g., front steps, outside the front door, drop off circle) this year compared to 2022.
Shooting in the school parking lots increased from 97 in 2022 to 101 in 2023. School security plans and exercises often overlook the parking lot even when it is the most common location from a shooting across the entire six-decade dataset.
When the shooting ended, the outcome for the assailant followed the same pattern as 2022. It is most common for the shooter to flee and never be arrested. This fits the national pattern as just half of homicides in all types of place are solved each year. In 7 of the 344 shootings (2%), the SRO caught the shooter on campus.
Apprehended/Killed by Law Enforcement (LE): There was an increase from 26 incidents in 2022 to 31 in 2023.
Apprehended/Killed by School Resource Officer (SRO): A decrease from 17 incidents in 2022 to 7 in 2023.
Fled/Apprehended: A slight increase from 123 incidents in 2022 to 135 in 2023.
Fled/Escaped: Also an increase from 162 incidents in 2022 to 174 in 2023.
Suicide: A small decrease from 6 incidents in 2022 to 5 in 2023.
Surrendered: A slight increase from 12 incidents in 2022 to 14 in 2023.
Handguns continue to be the most frequent type of weapon used. Gun policy debates at both the federal and state level tend to focus on semi-automatic rifles despite the data showing the handguns are a more common weapon. It’s critical to note that AR-style rifles are used in the highest fatality attacks. It’s important that lawmakers focus on both the most severe and the most frequent types of gun violence.
Handgun: The most common weapon type, with an increase from 208 incidents in 2022 to 245 in 2023.
Multiple Handguns: A decrease from 13 incidents in 2022 to 7 in 2023.
Rifle: A slight increase from 10 incidents in 2022 to 11 in 2023.
Multiple Rifles: A decrease from 3 incidents in 2022 to 1 in 2023.
Shotgun: Not used in 2022, but 1 incident in 2023 involved a shotgun.
Across the fifty-seven years this data covers, escalations of disputes are overwhelmingly the most common situations that spur shootings at schools.
In 2022 and 2023, the situations that drive these shootings remained mostly the same except for an increase in the number of disputes. In 2023, there were 24 more disputes and this accounts for 67% of the year-to-year increase. When people carry handguns, simple arguments in drop-off line or during a high school football game turn into shots fired.
Accidental: A decrease from 29 incidents in 2022 to 23 in 2023.
Domestic with Targeted Victim: Remained consistent with 4 incidents in both years.
Drive-by Shooting: A slight increase from 40 incidents in 2022 to 41 in 2023.
Escalation of Dispute: A significant increase from 84 incidents in 2022 to 108 in 2023.
Illegal Activity: Consistent with 18 incidents in both years.
Indiscriminate Shooting: Remained the same with 7 incidents in both years.
Intentional Property Damage: A small increase from 10 incidents in 2022 to 11 in 2023.
Changing Trend in 2024
To sum it up, there were more shootings in 2023, but they followed the same monthly distribution pattern as 2022. These shootings are happened outside of the school building during time periods after lunch. The most common situation is a dispute that escalates and this fits with a handgun being the most frequent firearm type. When shots were fired at a school, it is mostly likely to be a concealed handgun that was pull out during a fight.
When gun violence at schools has increased on an exponential curve over the last six years, there need to be significant changes or the trendline predicts there will be ~400 shootings in 2024.
Any investments in school security need to be carefully analyzed by using data from these real-world incidents that shows trends and changes. When the vast majority of the shootings are happening outside, why are school security investments focused on locking down inside a fortified classroom? (by the way, What is School Security?)
Reducing the number of shootings at schools in 2024 is going to require violence interruption programs to defuse disputes, crisis intervention to identify someone who feels like gun violence is their only option, policy changes to limit the availability of handguns to teens, and securing areas outside of the school building like the parking lot and front entryway.
David Riedman is the creator of the K-12 School Shooting Database and a national expert on school shootings. Listen to my recent interviews on Freakonomics Radio and the New England Journal of Medicine.